Volume 33, Issue 2 (Avicenna Journal of Clinical Medicine-Summer 2026)
Avicenna J Clin Med 2026, 33(2): 104-112 |
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Rahnemaei S, Beheshti Rooy R, Khazaei S. Temporal Trend Analysis of the Incidence of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome from 1990 to 2023 and Its Projection to 2030 in Iran. Avicenna J Clin Med 2026; 33 (2) :104-112
URL: http://sjh.umsha.ac.ir/article-1-3374-en.html
URL: http://sjh.umsha.ac.ir/article-1-3374-en.html
1- Gynecologist, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
2- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, Fatemieh Hospital, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran ,beheshti.rs@gmail.com
3- Research Center for Health Sciences, Institute of Health Sciences and Technologies, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran & Dental Implants Research Center, Avicenna Institute of Clinical Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
2- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, Fatemieh Hospital, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran ,
3- Research Center for Health Sciences, Institute of Health Sciences and Technologies, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran & Dental Implants Research Center, Avicenna Institute of Clinical Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
Abstract: (70 Views)
Background and Objective: Given the global upward trend of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and Iran's young population structure, this study aimed to investigate the temporal trend of age-standardized incidence rates of PCOS across Iranian provinces from 1990 to 2023 and to project these rates through 2030.
Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, age-standardized incidence rates of PCOS (per 100,000 women) for 31 provinces of Iran from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study. To model the temporal trend and forecast through 2030, a parametric autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling approach based on the Box-Jenkins framework was employed. All statistical analyses were performed using R software at a significance level of 0.05.
Results: The national incidence rate of PCOS increased from 63.8 cases in 1990 to 83.5 cases in 2023 (a 31% increase). The highest incidence rates were observed in adolescent age groups (10–14 years: 498.5 and 15–19 years: 424.3 cases per 100,000 women in 2023). Geographically, the provinces of Tehran (90.3), Alborz (88.2), and Mazandaran (87.7) had the highest incidence rates in 2023. Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran, with an absolute increase of 23 units, and North Khorasan Province, Iran, with an absolute increase of 24.8 units, experienced the greatest increases in disease burden. ARIMA model projections indicated that by 2030, Mazandaran Province, Iran, with a rate of 85.8 cases (a slight decline), will still have the highest incidence rate, and Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran, with a rate of 51.8 cases, will have the lowest incidence rate.
Conclusion: PCOS represents a growing public health concern in Iran with an increasing trend predominantly affecting adolescents and young women. Significant geographical heterogeneity exists in the incidence of this syndrome, and the disease burden is projected to remain concentrated in the northern and central provinces in the near future.
Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, age-standardized incidence rates of PCOS (per 100,000 women) for 31 provinces of Iran from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study. To model the temporal trend and forecast through 2030, a parametric autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling approach based on the Box-Jenkins framework was employed. All statistical analyses were performed using R software at a significance level of 0.05.
Results: The national incidence rate of PCOS increased from 63.8 cases in 1990 to 83.5 cases in 2023 (a 31% increase). The highest incidence rates were observed in adolescent age groups (10–14 years: 498.5 and 15–19 years: 424.3 cases per 100,000 women in 2023). Geographically, the provinces of Tehran (90.3), Alborz (88.2), and Mazandaran (87.7) had the highest incidence rates in 2023. Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran, with an absolute increase of 23 units, and North Khorasan Province, Iran, with an absolute increase of 24.8 units, experienced the greatest increases in disease burden. ARIMA model projections indicated that by 2030, Mazandaran Province, Iran, with a rate of 85.8 cases (a slight decline), will still have the highest incidence rate, and Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran, with a rate of 51.8 cases, will have the lowest incidence rate.
Conclusion: PCOS represents a growing public health concern in Iran with an increasing trend predominantly affecting adolescents and young women. Significant geographical heterogeneity exists in the incidence of this syndrome, and the disease burden is projected to remain concentrated in the northern and central provinces in the near future.
Type of Study: Original |
Subject:
Obstetrics & Gynecology
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